Ransomware Trends for 2025

We’re halfway through 2025 and in case you haven’t been paying attention, the game has changed. Ransomware is no longer a simple matter of encrypted files. It’s a full-blown business crisis, fueled by AI, supercharged by stolen credentials, and designed to cause maximum operational chaos.

With attack volumes hitting all-time highs and adversaries moving faster than ever, understanding this year’s top ransomware trends so far isn’t just an IT issue, it’s a core business survival strategy.

Recent data paints a stark picture: Ransomware is now a factor in a staggering 44% of all data breaches, up from 32% the previous year. While headlines might point to falling median ransom payments, the total cost of recovery continues to skyrocket, averaging $1.5 million per incident, before any ransom is even paid.

For IT and security leaders, this is a critical moment. The old defenses are no longer enough. It’s time to understand the new adversary playbook and build a resilient organization ready to face the threats of 2025 and beyond.

Trend 1: The Battlefield Has Shifted to Identity and the Edge

How are attackers getting in? They don’t need to “hack in” in the traditional sense. They are simply “logging in.” The two most dominant initial access vectors in 2025 are:

1. Exploited vulnerabilities: For the fifth year running, exploiting unpatched software is a primary entry point. Attackers are relentlessly scanning for and targeting vulnerabilities on the network edge: your VPNs, firewalls, and other internet-facing systems.
2. Stolen credentials: This vector is increasing and coming up to par with exploits, according to Mandiant. Cybercriminals are buying employee credentials from dark web markets (often harvested by infostealer malware) and using them to waltz right through the front door.

Once inside, attackers are increasingly “living off the land,” using your own legitimate IT tools like PowerShell and Remote Desktop Protocol to move through your network undetected. This makes them incredibly difficult to spot, as they look just like a regular system administrator.

The takeaway: Your security perimeter is no longer a wall; it’s a web of identities. Protecting those identities is paramount.

Trend 2: The Attack Timeline Has Collapsed to Minutes

Forget having days or weeks to detect an intruder. The average “breakout time,” the time it takes for an attacker to move from an initial compromise to other systems on the network, has shrunk to just 48 minutes. The fastest observed case was a shocking 51 seconds, according to CrowdStrike.

Why the speed? Attackers know that modern security tools like Endpoint Detection and Response eventually will spot them. Their goal is to get in, steal data, and deploy ransomware before the security team can react. This high-velocity attack model puts immense pressure on your detection and response capabilities.

Trend 3: The Extortion Playbook Is All About Business Disruption

If you think having good backups makes you safe, think again. Attackers have evolved beyond simple encryption (“Wave 1”) and data theft (“Wave 2”). We are now in the “Third Wave” of extortion: intentional business disruption.

Palo Alto Networks reports that in a stunning 86% of recent incidents, attackers deliberately tried to sabotage operations to force a payment. Their new tactics include:

• Wiping backups and cloud storage to eliminate recovery options.
• Launching DDoS attacks to knock your website offline.
• Publicly harassing your customers, employees, and partners with threatening calls and emails.
• Filing false regulatory complaints against your company to trigger audits.

The goal is to create a crisis so painful and public that paying the ransom feels like the only way out, even if you can recover your data.

Trend 4: AI is the New Superpower for Cybercriminals

Adversaries are weaponizing AI, using it as a force multiplier to:

• Craft perfect phishing emails at scale: AI eliminates the spelling and grammar mistakes that used to give away phishing attempts.
• Automate voice phishing (vishing): A 442% increase in vishing has been directly linked to AI’s ability to clone voices and automate deceptive calls to your help desk.
• Automate entire attack chains: “Agentic AI” frameworks can now autonomously execute a full ransomware campaign, from initial phish to data exfiltration, with minimal human oversight.

Trend 5: The Legal Risks of Paying a Ransom Are Exploding

Beyond the financial implications of paying a ransom, the decision can be a legal minefield, with these considerations:

• Government pushback: The International Counter Ransomware Initiative, a coalition of nearly 70 countries, is actively working to stop payments. Many governments now ban payments for public sector and critical infrastructure entities.
• OFAC Sanctions: The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) prohibits transactions with sanctioned entities, which include many major ransomware gangs. This is a strict liability offense – you can face massive fines even if you didn’t know the attacker was on the sanctions list. OFAC’s official position is a “presumption of denial” for any request to pay a sanctioned group.

The takeaway: Your general counsel must be a key part of your incident response plan from Day One. Shameless plug to listen to our podcast on The Ethics of Paying Up here.

Your 2025 Ransomware Resilience Plan: 5 Key Actions

Given these trends, a reactive security posture is doomed to fail. Your strategy must be one of proactive resilience. Here’s where to focus:

1. Adopt a zero-trust mindset: The old model of “trust but verify” is dead. The new model is “never trust, always verify.” Assume every user and device could be compromised. Enforce strict identity checks and least-privilege access for everyone, everywhere.
2. Make phishing-resistant MFA mandatory: This is the single most effective defense against credential-based attacks. Move away from SMS and push-based MFA and adopt the gold standard: FIDO2-compliant hardware keys or passkeys.
3. Aggressively manage your attack surface: Run a tight ship. Patch aggressively, especially on internet-facing systems. Prioritize vulnerabilities listed in CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog. If you don’t need a port open to the internet, close it.
4. Make your backups as solid as possible: Your backups are your last line of defense. They should be immutable, isolated from the main network (air-gapped), and tested relentlessly so you can actually restore from them.
5. Test your incident response plan: An untested plan is not a plan. Run regular tabletop exercises and full-scale simulations with all key stakeholders – IT, security, legal, and executive leadership. Have an incident response firm and expert legal counsel on retainer before you need them.

The ransomware threat in 2025 is formidable, but it is not unbeatable. By understanding the adversary’s new playbook and building a strategy centered on proactive resilience, you can protect your organization and maintain its ability to withstand the inevitable attack.

Take the first step with a demo of Commvault Cloud®, and learn how to protect yourself for the second half of 2025 and beyond.